Lessons from the Champions League: from the Premier League to PSG without Mbappé
The results of a knockout competition might be exciting and unexpected.Kentucky can lose to St. Peter’s and Oakland. The New York Giants can defeat the New England Patriots (twice). Morocco can beat Spain and Portugal consecutively, while the Premier League – football’s richest league so far – might find itself outclassed by UEFA competitions.
The quarterfinals of the Champions League and Europa League matches erased many English hopes and narratives. Antonio Rudiger’s decisive spot-kick and Manchester City’s second knockout loss in three years dashed hopes of a “double treble.” Liverpool’s unique treble hopes – League Cup, Europa League, Premier League – ended when Atalanta’s comeback bid fell short.
Although Arsenal is still making progress, as with many 21st-century Champions League aspirations, the team’s dreams of reaching a semi-final have been dashed, having last occurred fifteen years ago.Munich. After West Ham’s loss to Bayer Leverkusen, only Aston Villa’s return win in the Europa Conference League quarterfinals kept England in contention with a dramatic goal, ensuring England’s presence in any competition.
In the wake of each captivating outcome, we’re consistently drawn to the narrative contraption, undeterred by its whimsical nature.
The Premier League is hyped! Bundesliga is undercounted! PSG’s plan was spot-on! After a few days of digesting what we saw, let’s talk about what we really learned and what we didn’t from these incredible quarterfinal rounds.
Money matters, but not everything. It might go without saying, but only in this case: despite the quarterfinal flameouts, the Premier League still reigns as the best league in Europe (and, therefore, the world). It boasts the most money, the deepest talent pool, the highest roster values, and so on. Prior to this season, it had provided seven finalists in the last six Champions Leagues. And according to UEFA’s latest benchmarking report, the 20 Premier League clubs generate as much revenue as all 38 clubs from La Liga and Bundesliga combined, as well as all 642 clubs from the bottom 50 countries in Europe.
However, it’s almost comfortable to see that just financial might doesn’t always get the job done. Over the past two seasons, the Premier League hasn’t translated its depth into European success on a grand scale.Last spring saw West Ham progressing to the semifinals of the Europa Conference League alongside Chelsea, who advanced to the same stage in the Champions League.
Enhancing the enthralling football narrative, Chelsea triumphantly secured yet another prestigious win in the illustrious Champions League, as Manchester United elegantly advanced to the quarterfinal stage of the Europa League.. This campaign witnessed a rare occurrence with only two English teams, namely Newcastle and Manchester United, navigating through to the knockout stages of the Champions League. Unfortunately, both teams faced a premature exit in the quarterfinals, having concluded at the bottom of their groups.“
Financially, the Premier League has distanced itself from the field, but it hasn’t quite kept pace with the “Staff Hapans principle” of knockout tournaments. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal suffered the same fate against Bayern as Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp did against Atalanta. (I know Klopp isn’t about to hire a 66-year-old player, but still, it’s quite a sexy thought.)
Meanwhile, City overcame Real Madrid in two legs, attempting 45 shots compared to Blancos’ 22 and generating 3.5 xG while allowing just 2.1. But they couldn’t convert many high-quality chances and couldn’t control Real Madrid’s talent and penalty shootout.
The results of the Champions League quarterfinals were also not a win for European parity. The Premier League might be the richest league, but this year’s semifinalists are still positioned first (Real Madrid), fourth (PSG), sixth (Bayern), and 12th (Borussia Dortmund) in overall revenue from 2023; indeed, PSG’s defeat of Barcelona (third in revenue) was the only quarterfinal “upset,” and it wasn’t much of one.
“The wealthiest league’s failure to yield optimal outcomes led to a substantial upheaval in the standings.” In the upcoming expanded Champions League next year, two spots will go to the countries that have had the most success in the three UEFA competitions. Italy secured one of them, thanks to their outstanding performance in the Europa League (where they had three quarter-finalists and two semi-finalists) and the Europa Conference League (where Fiorentina has been in the semi-finals for the second consecutive year) after the respective UEFA rounds. With a Power Rating of 16, Italy gave England an 82% chance of overtaking them.
After the quarter-finals, the odds are now 1%, compared to 99% in Germany – how unexpected the results were. If Villarreal wins both legs of the Europa Conference League semi-final against Olympiacos and advances to win the title, while all remaining German entries not only lose in the semi-finals but also either fail to win more than one leg or play more than two legs, the tide could turn. Back to the Premier League. You never know: things happen. But the odds are long. It seems that the world’s richest league won’t get the most slots in next year’s Champions League.
Real Madrid secured victory with more quality than quantity (again). Two years ago, despite trailing Liverpool by a margin of 24-4, Real Madrid won the Champions League final. But although it often feels like Real Madrid always has luck on its side in the Champions League, this wasn’t all down to luck. Despite their overall lack of success, they managed to produce the game’s greatest shots, which was crucial.. As I wrote at the time, “In football, a single, high-value scoring opportunity can make a big difference, especially in knockout games where talent levels are
equal, and the stakes are high. Over the long term, small xG numbers start to add up and tell a story, but in the short term, big chances matter most.”
Keeping that in mind, let’s analyze last week’s draw between Madrid and City.
Shots: Manchester City 33, Real Madrid 8.
This is quite lopsided.
Shots with at least 0.3 xG value: Real Madrid 3, Manchester City 1.
Unfortunately for City, Real Madrid matched that technical prowess with goals from Rodrigo and Federico Valverde, and they also got an early own goal from Ruben Dias. This meant that City needed even more miraculous strikes in the second leg… and they couldn’t deliver.
Even if you’re Real Madrid, when you try to win with fewer shots and very little total xG, you’re playing with fire. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s squad excels at transforming any important game into a contest full of breathtaking moments.. It’s a fight Real Madrid can win and usually does.”
I hope this human-friendly tone makes the translation easy to follow!
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